Defining Success: Metrics and Guardrails
Learn to choose the right success metrics and set up guardrails to prevent disasters.
You can't improve what you don't measure. Before launching any experiment, you need to answer a deceptively simple question: What does success look like?
This sounds obvious, but it's where many teams go wrong. They launch tests without clear success criteria, then argue about what the results mean. Or worse, they optimize for a metric that looks good in isolation but hurts the business overall.
A well-designed experiment needs two types of metrics: a success metric that tells you whether to ship, and guardrail metrics that ensure you're not winning at the cost of something else important. In this section, you'll learn how to choose both—and why the distinction matters.
Success Metric vs. Guardrail Metrics
Success Metric
Your primary KPI-the one metric you're trying to improve.
Examples:
- • Conversion rate
- • Revenue per user
- • Retention rate
- • Feature adoption
Guardrail Metrics
Secondary KPIs you monitor to ensure no negative impact elsewhere.
Examples:
- • Page load time
- • Error rate
- • Support tickets
- • User satisfaction
Real-World Example: Netflix
New plan selection screen test
Signups
Verdict: Failed Test
Despite improving the primary metric (signups), the dramatic spike in support tickets revealed a flawed design. Guardrail metrics saved Netflix from shipping a problematic feature.
Understanding Delta: Absolute vs. Relative
Delta measures the difference between control and variant. There are two ways to express it:
Absolute Delta
Formula
B - A
Simple subtraction
Example
Control (A)
1,000
conversions
Variant (B)
1,100
conversions
1,100 − 1,000 = 100
+100 conversions
Relative Delta
Formula
(B - A) / A
Percentage change
Same Example
+10% lift
Relative improvement
Which Should You Use?
Both! They tell different stories:
- • Absolute delta shows real business impact (100 more conversions = revenue)
- • Relative delta shows magnitude of change (10% lift is significant)
- • Always report both to give complete context
Key Takeaways
- ✓Success metric is your primary KPI-the one thing you're trying to move.
- ✓Guardrail metrics protect against unintended consequences in other areas.
- ✓Absolute delta (B - A) shows real business impact.
- ✓Relative delta ((B-A)/A) shows percentage change and magnitude.
- ✓Always report both deltas for complete context.